Calculating the value of an SEO course

The value of an SEO course is important to estimate the amount of investment in it. Many organizations want to know in advance what the potential return is, which makes sense, of course. In this article I share how I go about calculating the value of SEO .

Can you predict the ROI of an SEO project in advance?

There are an awful lot of variables at play in calculating the value of SEO, including:

1. Unpredictable algorithm updates: sometimes updates can cause sudden changes in your website’s ranking. That makes the predictability of the results of an SEO project more difficult.
2. Competition: SEO is a dynamic field in which you compete with other websites for the highest possible ranking in organic search results.
3. Changes in search behavior: users’ search behavior is also subject to change. Trends, seasonality, market changes and various other factors may underlie this. Changing search behavior affects search volume for your most important keywords.
4. Time to see results: SEO is a long-term strategy. This means that it can take up to months before the full effects of your efforts become apparent.
5. Technical issues: technical problems with your website, such as slow load times, broken links and mobile optimization issues, can reduce the effectiveness of your SEO efforts(1).
6. Quality content: one of the most crucial aspects of SEO is creating high-quality content. This content manages to not only attract visitors, but also retain them. However, it is difficult to predict how well a particular piece of content will perform(2).

On some things I have direct influence, such as content and technology. I have less influence on other things, such as what the competitor is doing and, above all, what Google is doing with the algorithm. I can always put a forecast on paper, but some of it remains guesswork unfortunately.

Different ways to calculate the value of SEO

Now that you know what factors like affect the effectiveness of your SEO efforts, it’s time to move on to the ways to calculate this value. There are several methods for this. Some common ones I have listed for you below:

1. Traffic estimation: with tools like Google Analytics, you can track how many visitors to your website come from organic search. This gives an indication of the direct value of SEO in terms of traffic.
2. Conversion rates and value: if you keep track of conversion rates for organic search traffic, you can better understand the financial value of SEO. Imagine you run an e-commerce website. In that case, you’re looking at sales that come directly from organic search traffic. For other types of websites, the conversion value may again be the number of leads or subscriptions generated through organic search.
3. Keyword value: when using tools such as Google Ads, you can find the estimated cost per click (CPC) for your most important keywords. When you then multiply this cost by the number of organic clicks you receive, you can estimate how much you would have spent if you had paid for those clicks through PPC (Pay-Per-Click) ads. This metric is also displayed in Ahrefs.
4. Customer lifetime value (CLV): if you know the CLV of your customers, you can use this to estimate the value of SEO. Imagine you know that an average customer you attract through organic search has a lifetime value of €1000. If you attract 100 such clients per month, you can say that the SEO value based on the CLV for that month is €100,000.
5. Ranking: although not directly expressed in financial terms, the position of your website on the search engine results page (SERP) is also an indication of the value of your SEO efforts. When you achieve a high ranking for relevant keywords, it brings you more traffic and ultimately more conversions.

However, I do want to add a comment to the above. In fact, you can use the methods I mentioned to make useful estimates. However, they may not always reflect the full value of SEO.

With search engine optimization, for example, you can also build brand awareness and trust. This in turn provides indirect benefits such as repeat purchases and word-of-mouth advertising. These things are harder to measure.

The most complete calculation should include the following components:

Formulas to calculate the value of SEO

What formulas can you use to predict SEO traffic?

Forecasting the value of SEO traffic you can partly capture with formulas (see below), but estimating how much impact certain changes will have always requires a bit of experience within SEO.

1. Using historical data and trends: if you have access to historical SEO data, you can identify trends and patterns. You then use these to predict your future performance. Linear regression or time series analysis can be useful statistical techniques here. These terms may sound complicated, but the formula is easier than you think.

Formula: y = mx + b, where:

• y is predictable traffic
• m is the growth or decline over time
• x is the unit of time (for example, months or years)
• b is the starting point (traffic at t=0).

2. Keyword Volume and Click-Through Rate (CTR): you can combine the average search volume for a particular keyword with the average CTR for your current or target ranking position. That’s another way to estimate potential traffic.

Formula: SEO traffic = Search volume x CTR

Keep in mind, though, that CTR varies depending on your position on the page. Typically, the higher the position, the higher the CTR.

3. Predict growth with SEO efforts: if you plan specific SEO efforts, such as publishing more content or building backlinks, you can also estimate their expected impact (based on experience).

Formula: Projected growth = Current traffic x (1 + expected growth rate)

What do you need to measure the value of an SEO journey?

If you want to best measure the value of your SEO journey, you can use a variety of tools and systems. I list a few below that are among the most essential:

1. Google Analytics: here, search terms + conversions from SEO is particularly important(3).
2. Google Search Console: I use this tool largely for determining what impact certain changes might have on performance(4).
3. SEO tools: tools like Ahrefs, SEMrush and MOZ can help determine the potential impact of certain work on SEO on the website (and what exactly the competitor is doing on SEO)(5).
4. Conversion tracking: I put this one in separately because it is vital. Tracking conversions correctly is very important. When this data is incorrect, the foundation of the calculations is incorrect.
5. CRM: A CRM can ensure that you not only measure conversions, but also the quality of the conversions (especially with B2B, this is important).
6. Heatmap tools: tools like Hotjar or Crazy Egg give you insight into how users navigate your website.

Before you begin

Before you begin this, you want to have a few things clear. This will allow you to estimate as accurately as possible what the value of the SEO journey will be.

1. what is the current state of the website;
2. what is the potential of the website;
3. what is the size of the market;
4. How actively are competitors engaged in SEO.

With this, you have the bottom line for calculating the value of SEO. To conclude, always give a probability (when communicating this to management) that the exact outcome will differ from this forecast. Good luck!